As the political parties write their general election manifestos, one of them faces a particular challenge.
The Conservatives might think they have an unassailable lead, but they could easily snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. And that would put Brexit in peril.
NHI for the Self-Employed
Firstly., they would dearly like their manifesto to give them fiscal carte blanche. Their previous manifesto promised no rise in VAT, income tax or national health insurance (NHI) contributions. That may have been foolish, but it’s why Chancellor Philip Hammond came unstuck in March.
His March 2017 budget proposed to increase NHI for the self-employed. The Guardian found at least 18 Tory MPs prepared to vote that down. Hammond and Mrs May retreated.
But this time, if they take out the pledge, every Tory candidate will be signed up to the change. It follows they will be unable to object. But they may not have the opportunity. According to National Statistics, there are now over four and a half million self-employed in the UK. The trend shows not sign of slowing down. ONS say: ‘The level of self-employment in the UK increased from 3.8 million in 2008 to 4.6 million in 2015.’
The pensioners’ ‘triple-lock’
Secondly, the Conservatives would love to abolish the so-called ‘triple-lock’ with this general election. The coalition government began this scheme in 2010. It increases the state pension each year by inflation, the increase in average earnings or 2.5%, whichever is the highest. Maintaining the triple lock until at least 2020 was another David Cameron 2015 manifesto commitment.
Labour have already pledged to maintain the triple-lock. If the Tories take it away, they could alienate every one of the UK’s 11.8 million pensioners in one go. Nearly one million over-75s live in poverty, according to the BBC. At April 2014, the basic state pension was around £440 a year more than it would have been if it had been increased only in line with the increase in average earnings. So it matters to people. Almost 2 million pensioners may live in a household with a millionaire, but if self-interest or altruism kick in, Mrs May could be in trouble.
So that is twelve million pensioners and four-and-a-half million self-employed. Fifteen million is a huge voting block to alienate. There are just 44.7 million electors in the UK, according to ONS. You do the maths. The Tories stand to lose the votes of over a third of the electorate. And these are people who actually vote. Lose them and they lose the general election.
The Brexit dimension
The LibDems want to remain in the EU, or at least in the Single Market and Customs Union, which amounts to the same thing. Their leader, Tim Farron, is also promising a second referendum.
Labour’s shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer said today that his party would scrap Theresa May’s Brexit plans. Labour would unilaterally guarantee the rights of EU residents to stay before talks even start. Furthermore, he said the EU single market should be kept ‘on the table’.
Frankly, a general election yielding a Conservative majority is the only way of guaranteeing a full, proper, clean exit from the revived Roman Empire. Without putting trust in princes, Mrs May looks like she could achieve that. More EU jobs are dependent on the UK market than vice versa, but even World Trade Organisation tariffs are not actually that high across most sectors. Trade deals are good for trade, but companies manage to trade with foreign partners without them. There is no EU trade agreement with China, for example.
Pray for the General Election
We need to pray for Ben Gummer MP, the Ipswich MP in charge of writing the Conservative manifesto. Obviously he will be talking to party bigwigs, but they all need to realise what is at stake.
They may not realise that there is a massive spiritual battle going on over Brexit right now. Behind every material reality is a spiritual reality and we are aware of that.
Pray the Tories do not alienate voters by abandoning the NHI pledge and the triple-lock. The Chancellor will have to wait. The most vital matter today is Brexit. If the Conservatives mess up the election and put Brexit in jeopardy there will be massive public anger.
Easter Message
We also need to pray that Theresa May takes this opportunity to make good her Easter message. She clearly said people in public service should be able to share their faith without risk of losing their job. But they are losing their jobs. So dispel accusations of hypocrisy by making that a manifesto pledge.
She also said the UK should be standing up for Christians overseas. So stand up for the Christians of Syria, and support the Syrian Government which is their only protector. Stand up also for persecuted Christians in Pakistan, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia, for example.
We should obviously like to see measures promised opposing the abortion industry and euthanasia. Reform of the family courts and the scandal of overbearing child protection is overdue. Crucially for the nation’s children, the Tory manifesto should stand against the fashionable transgender scam, especially in schools. That would cause outcry, but not fifteen million voters’ worth of outcry.
Finally, on foreign affairs, let us pray for a manifesto commitment of peace. Pray to have a Secretary of State for Defence, rather than – as we currently have – one for Provocation. Pray for a reset with Russia. Mrs May could pledge in this general election never again to destablise other nations. She could promise the UK will approach diplomacy with maturity. At the moment, Boris Johnson and Sir Michael Fallon seem like a couple of adolescent stags trying to prove their virility. The anti-Russia rhetoric is ludicrous and embarrassing.
Prayer and Email:
You can email your MP from the Parliament link right here to witness to him or her about content of the manifesto.
If your MP is not Conservative, you can even email Mr Ben Gummer MP with suggestions, or just to let him know you are praying.
Be sure every lobby group will be doing the same. Not the praying bit, obviously.
And do also pray for the other parties. On some matters, their general election manifestos could at the very least change the parameters of debate. Labour and UKIP could be better disposed towards peace, for example. There are plainly other issues attracting attention in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and Wales to some extent. But if you live outside England, or even overseas, please spare some prayer time for the overall UK picture.
Deuteronomy 3:24 O Lord GOD, thou hast begun to shew thy servant thy greatness, and thy mighty hand: for what God is there in heaven or in earth, that can do according to thy works, and according to thy might?
1Samuel 12:23 Moreover as for me, God forbid that I should sin against the LORD in ceasing to pray for you: but I will teach you the good and the right way: 24 Only fear the LORD, and serve him in truth with all your heart: for consider how great things he hath done for you.
1Thess 5:17 Pray without ceasing.
1Tim 2:1 I exhort therefore, that, first of all, supplications, prayers, intercessions, and giving of thanks, be made for all men; 2 For kings, and for all that are in authority; that we may lead a quiet and peaceable life in all godliness and honesty.
I am not convinced that being in the single market and customs union is the same thing as being in the EU. It needs to be asked whether Britain can survive a cold-turkey Brexit. It may be necessary to remain in the EEA etc. until we again have what it takes to be an independent nation, then leave.
You may remember that many people were persuaded to vote for Brexit because of a manufactured scare about a hot-Turkey entry, a Turentry I suppose, in the current jargon. This was always extremely unlikely, and is now virtually impossible.
Would a Slovexit be Slovenia or Slovakia leaving the EU ? Originally, Grexit was the prospect of Greece abandoning the euro, not the EU. It really is time all this nonsense was abandoned (along with any prospect of a Eurogate).
It’s the Labour Party which faces a particular challenge, and it’s called Jeremy Corbyn.
After making a speech (no doubt written by somebody else) to “launch” the Labour Manifesto, emphasising that Brexit is now decided and out of the way, he was asked in a BBC interview whether he ruled out staying in the European Union if he were prime minister, and he FIVE TIMES refused to answer this question. Perhaps the Labour Manifesto assumes that he will not be prime minister. I can’t make sense of it otherwise.
I do believe that the impossibility now of Turkey joining the EU merits a rethink, People have already forgotten it, but the possibility of disastrous immigration from Turkey formed a big part of the material circulating which persuaded people to leave. So I suppose I agree with Corbyn on this, but I hope I am clearer (bolder, even) in saying what I mean.
IMHO, Jeremy Corbyn was always, like Theresa May, a secret Leaver. That’s because true socialists object to multi-national empires, I guess.
Yes, he was a secret leaver, but (hmm) what about the Internationale ?
“Debout, les damnés de la terre
Debout, les forçats de la faim
La raison tonne en son cratère
C’est l’éruption de la fin
Du passé faisons table rase
Foule esclave, debout, debout
Le monde va changer de base
Nous ne sommes rien, soyons tout.
C’est la lutte finale
Groupons-nous, et demain
L’Internationale
Sera le genre humain
Il n’est pas de sauveurs suprêmes
Ni Dieu, ni César, ni tribun
Producteurs, sauvons-nous nous-mêmes
Décrétons le salut commun
Pour que le voleur rende gorge
Pour tirer l’esprit du cachot
Soufflons nous-mêmes notre forge
Battons le fer quand il est chaud
.
C’est la lutte finale
Groupons-nous, et demain
L’Internationale
Sera le genre humain ”
+ two-thirds more.
Indeed, when asked my interests at a job interview, as a naive youthful enthusiast for the looming European Union I said “internationalism”, and was accused of being some kind of dangerous communist. I assured the employer that I was in favour of strictly capitalist internationalism, and managed to get the job,
Years later he told me casually (as though it was an everyday opinion) that he thought we should have entered the Second World War on the side of Germany, but I never went quite as far as that ! He was a man in a position to be influential in Society, apparently perfectly respectable.
I think what makes all the difference is if the “Empire” is reasonably democratic or not, at least internally within its separate states. The British Empire mostly was, and the European Union is too theoretically (though some of the eastern members are showing signs of waivering). The Third Reich wasn’t.
It amazes me how stupid almost all politicians can be from time to time.
It seemed obvious to everybody except the Conservatives who wrote their manifesto that OAPs and their families would not like the idea of giving up all the value of their house except £100,000 . Despite what one of them was pretending in retrospect, we all know that a lot of Conservative OAPs live in houses worth a lot more than £100,000, and it will cost their children a lot more than that to buy one for themselves.
I am thoroughly confused I admit, but I believe this deal may actually be better than what is already in place. However, don’t expect the OAPs to weigh this up ! All the Conservatives have done is to draw attention to the whole sorry business, while Corbyn promises everybody everything.
Enter the Manchester bomber, possibly about as welcome as the Argentinan invasion of the Falkland Islands.