This morning Sir Graham Brady, Chairman of the Conservative Party’s 1922 Committee, revealed he had received more than 48 letters of no confidence in Theresa May as leader of the Party and therefore as Prime Minister.
1922 Committee meeting and vote
Sir Graham is arranging for Mrs May to address Tory MPs at the Committee’s normal Wednesday meeting at 5pm this afternoon, although some reports suggested the meeting could be brought forward.
Voting will take place between 6pm and 8pm tonight. The result could be declared soon after. Brexiteer MPs are angry that it has all happened so soon. They wanted the weekend to drum up support. But they are where they are, and the timing is surely of the Lord, however it turns out.
The Independent reminds us the 1922 Committee is named after a Tory rebellion: ‘The 1922, which meets in Parliament’s oak-panelled Committee Room 14 at 5pm every Wednesday afternoon, is named after the historic Carlton Club meeting between Tory rebels Stanley Baldwin and Bonar Law on 19th October 1922, in which the men successfully plotted the withdrawal of the party from its coalition with David Lloyd George’s Liberals.’
Mrs May ‘will fight’
Theresa May said this morning she would fight the no confidence vote with ‘Everything I’ve got.’
She added: ‘A new leader wouldn’t have time to re-negotiate a withdrawal agreement and get the legislation through Parliament by March 29, so one of their first acts would have to be extending or rescinding Article 50, delaying or even stopping Brexit when people want us to get on with it.’
Well, that depends on whom any new leader is. If they were a Remainer, it might almost be true, although any Prime Minister who extends Article 50, let alone withdraws it, would find his position untenable. He would almost certainly lose a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons, since the DUP would no longer support him. He would almost certainly lose the general election which would follow.
Scare tactic aimed at Brexiteers
MPs decide the short-list of two but then the leader of the Conservative Party is elected by ordinary members of the Party. They are overwhelmingly pro-Brexit. So let us say Mrs May lost and that triggered a leadership election. The next leader and prime minister would be a Brexiteer of some sort or another. We can be sure his platform would not have included delaying or withdrawing Article 50.
Furthermore, in truth, there is very clearly no scope to re-negotiate the withdrawal agreement either. In yesterday’s whirlwind tour European leaders made that very plain to her.
So Mrs May’s is just a scare tactic directed at Brexiteer MPs. Why should Mrs May pick on them? Because they are the ones most likely to vote against her. What a coincidence.
Making the contest less about her and more about her deal and the Brexit outcome could be yet another mistake.
Bookmakers odds
Nevertheless, the bookmakers think Mrs May will survive the vote. William Hill put the Prime Minister’s chance to win at 6 to 4 on. Spokesman Rupert Adams said: ‘The odds suggest Theresa will be safe but it could be a close run thing.’
It would not be a total surprise for Mrs May to win the vote narrowly and then decide to resign. Knowing perhaps 40% of your colleagues have no confidence in you and that any number more are merely lukewarm is not a good place for any leader to be. If just 100 out of 330 Tory MPs vote against her, the word is the Cabinet will be advising her to resign.
But against that happening is Theresa May’s renowned stubbornness and her inability to face up to reality. But she may survive, and if so, that will be the Lord’s doing (and I might add, after all that has taken place in the last week, ‘wondrous in our eyes’!)
The Lord disposes
I was at a meeting of Prayer for Parliament in the Palace of Westminster last night. It was adddressed by Sir Jeffrey Donalson MP, DUP member for Lagan Valley. Sir Jeffrey also prayed into the Brexit situation in the House. He revealed that he has had the same revelation as I had yesterday.
That is that everything which has happened over Brexit has been orchestrated by the Lord. Furthermore, it is hard to escape the conclusion that his divine purpose is to bring the United Kingdom swiftly out of the EU’s Revived Roman Empire with no deal.
Prov 16:9 A man’s heart deviseth his way: but the LORD directeth his steps.
Just consider the Referendum Party launch in 1996 and the subsequent rise of UKIP to their heights of 2014. That, and pressure from his own Brexiteer MPs, forced Mr Cameron into putting a promise to hold a referendum into the Tory manifesto in 2015. He made good his pledge in 2016. The Referendum result was an unecpected victory for Leave over Remain by 52% to 48%.
Commons approved Article 50
Mr Cameron resigned the day after the result and Mrs May was appointed leader after Andrea Leadsom dropped out. Next, Remainers went to court to force a House of Commons vote on Article 50
The Supreme Court ruled in their favour on 24th January 2017. They hoped the House would block it. But the Brexit Bill cleared all its hurdles on 13th March 2017. Thanks to the Reminers, Article 50 had a Parliamentary legitimacy it would not have had.
Her Majesty’s Government served a notice under Article 50 on the EU on 29th March 2017. Now consider Mrs May’s botched General Election campaign during May and June 2017. I specifically prayed for a hung parliament with a Tory administration but with the DUP holding the balance of power, in effect, keeping them honest. That is what turned out.
Then came two wasted years of negotiation with an intransigent EU more concerned to punish the UK than look forward to a future trading relationship. During that time, the Government were forced in June 2018 to agree the Commons having a ‘meaningful vote’ on any resulting deal. Remainers thought that would ensure a deal more favourable to them.
The Lord knows the heart behind our prayer
Many of us prayed against the Commons have a meaningful vote for the same reason. How wrong we were. But the Lord knew what we were really praying for and disposed accordingly.
And now the Commons will not agree the May Deal. Moreover, there is no course around which the House of Commons can agree. The Brexit legislation sets a 21st January deadline. If there is to be a deal it must be approved by then. If not, ministers have to tell the House what they are going to do in its absence.
Finally, if there is no deal ratified by the UK and EU by 29th March, the United Kingdom leaves the EU on World Trade Organisation rules. In addition, we leave withpout paying £39 billion. And that is £733 for every person of working age in the UK, or over £1,400 per household.
The Metro newspaper headline yesterday was ‘The Clock is now ticking for No Deal’.
One could be forgiven for thinking the Lord himself has engineered a No-Deal Crash-Out outcome.
Has the Lord engineered No Deal?
Prov 16:9 A man’s heart deviseth his way: but the LORD directeth his steps.
PRAY that the United Kingdom comes out of the European Union one way or another. An orderly way would be preferable. But it looks as if our esteemed Government has missed the boat for that outcome. They are stumbling towards ‘No Deal’, whoever is leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister.
The only danger in such a case is they might ask for an Article 50 extension. The EU would attach strings before granting such a request. A withdrawal of Art50 would be politically impossible. In any case, the Lord will decide against them.
Both sides of the Irish border and both sides of the Channel had better start preparing for No-Deal and WTO rules. They, and businesses, should have been doing this two years ago.
World trade collapsed
Finally, in Isaiah 23, we read of the Lord’s judgment on Tyre. If affected trade worldwide, including the mineral-rich isles of Tarshish. Many scholars now view ‘Tarshish’ as the British Isles. We were a known source of copper, tin, silver, gold, iron and lead in the Bronze and Iron Ages. Indeed, to have a ‘bronze age’ at all you need copper, found in Wales and Somerset, and tin from Cornwall. Isaiah writes of the destruction of Tyre as a catastrophe for trade:
Isa 23:1 The burden of Tyre. Howl, ye ships of Tarshish; for it is laid waste, so that there is no house, no entering in: from the land of Chittim it is revealed to them.
Ezekiel also pronounces a judgment on Tyre in Ezekiel 27. He lists the extensive and astonishing world trade at the time. Do read it! Like Isiaah he speaks of a collapse in world trade:
Eze 27:35 All the inhabitants of the isles shall be astonished at thee, and their kings shall be sore afraid, they shall be troubled in their countenance.
Be realistic in our prayer
What I saying is that we should be realistic in our prayers. Recognise a ‘No Deal’ exit will inevitably impact on people’s livelihoods. Companies may have to restructure.their markets or accept lower margins. Some may go out of business. It will be tough. Nevertheless, it will not be the disaster predicted by those of ‘Project Fear II’.
I believe if the Almighty orchestrates such an outcome it will be to benefit the UK in the longer term. Tarshish no doubt recovered and secured new markets. Isaiah promises after a 70-year period, a Biblical time of completion, not just prosperity but blessing in the purposes of God:
Isa 23:18 And her merchandise and her hire shall be holiness to the LORD: it shall not be treasured nor laid up; for her merchandise shall be for them that dwell before the LORD, to eat sufficiently, and for durable clothing.
PRAY: That the repentance which will bring that about will be our portion in this United Kingdom, to the glory of God. And of course pray into this no-confidence vote and the aftermath. Moreover, remind the Lord what he has done for us so far, not because of our goodness – God knows our national sin – but because of his grace. And perhaps because he still has a purpose for this United Kingdom. Pray without ceasing!
For the spiritual significance of coming out of the EU, see this link here on our website.
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23 comments
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Fascinating article! I am wondering about the wisdom of suggesting somewhat glibly that this is in The Lord’s will. It maybe. Yes, there is a plumb line against Ezekiel 27 and comments on Tyre. I am sceptical, however, of a too close connection here with Tarshish and the UK. Much more to the point is that, as a nation, we will suffer considerable disruption to our anticipated life style, and this will increase the sense of insecurity that many of us are increasingly feeling. As a nation, we are far too tolerant of evil, failing to call it exactly what it is, and agender like LGBT and transgender promotion IS thoroughly evil. That we are entering into an uncertain future in the short term is without doubt. We have some evil people in Parliament (not just ‘bad’ but thoroughly evil) who are generating all kinds of evil in the nation, ably supported by their party political activists, especially of the left of the political spectrum. Given the utter poverty of church leadership at this time within the UK, I am sceptical as to whether we, as a nation will genuinely repent, which we need to do if we are to recover.
A very good point here. It is very difficult to know what is the Lord’s will and what isn’t, unless you take the view that everything is the Lord’s will (which seems reasonable, as he is capable of anything — why should he allow things to go wrong ?)
Michael, you are confusing your agenda with your gender.
Through the curtain that was torn at the death of Jesus, Father Yehovah, together with Stephen and every person praying for Your intervention regarding Brexit Bill, I come into Your Court in heaven, as You have invited us to bring our arguments before You through Your Prophet Isaiah. We agree with our adversary that we, our fathers, our land have sinned against You. But according to 2 Chronicles 7: 13-16, we ask You to wash our sins with the blood of Yeshua, our Saviour and cleanse our land, especially Britain of the sins weighing on it. We bind the minds of the leaders of Britain to the mind of Christ, their wills to the will of Christ and we ask of You to release Your blood into them, uproot all thoughts & reasonings that stand against Your will concerning the issue; instead plant in them Your will, wisdom, instructions & strategies. Besides that, we ask You to appoint Your heavenly hosts in their millions to arrest all the demonic in all nations -in the heavens, in the earth and under the earth, in all 3 dimensions- so that, all power working against Your will for planet earth at this hour are nullified & defeated, and that Your holy will concerning the matter is promoted, executed & established.
This is very dramatic, but is it really going to change Father Yehovah’s mind (assuming that he reads it) ?
For example, elsymatt asks Him to uproot all thoughts that stand against His will, but wouldn’t he do that anyway (if he wanted to) ?
Author
One has tried to explain before that the Lord delights to involve us in what he does. Wesley said ‘God does nothing but in answer to prayer.’ That might overstate, but it gets the idea across. The Lord hears our prayers:
Psalm 34:17 The righteous cry, and the LORD heareth, and delivereth them out of all their troubles.
Prov 15:29 The LORD is far from the wicked: but he heareth the prayer of the righteous.
Jas 5:16b The effectual fervent prayer of a righteous man availeth much. (All KJV)
Government departments have been planning for a ‘No Deal’ for a long time. Mr Donaldson is a respectable godly man who is worth listening to.
Thanks for the article, Stephen.
Looking at the Brexit flow charts in the media for parliamentary procedures of various scenarios reminds me of the snakes and ladders board game. It takes effort to climb the ladder but it’s a quick trip down the snake. It took time and probably soul-searching to get the number of letters in for a no confidence vote which might be lost in one evening. It’s an unpredictable ride. I suppose all one can do is the right thing as situations arise and not outwit those who use Machiavellian schemes – a bit like David not putting on Saul’s armour. This verse keeps coming to mind:
“With the pure you will show yourself pure; and with the devious you will show yourself shrewd”. (Psalm 18:26).
Mrs May repeatedly misconstrues what her ‘deal’ in fact achieves. This goes well beyond a matter of interpretation or ‘spin’, this is deliberate dissembling. In a word, I believe she lies. In this regard alone, she is deeply spiritually compromised, and hence has lost the moral authority to govern. I trust and pray the Lord will act in this matter in the common good.
All we’ve got to do then is find a leader who doesn’t lie. With a plan that will work. On Northern Ireland.
The fact is that Northern Ireland has got to be treated as if it was part of Ireland, and as if it was part of the UK, and that has to be achieved without treating Northern Ireland differently from anywhere else. That is impossible.
It doesn’t help that Northern Ireland actually has, for many years, been treated as different, that their elected MPs from one party never attend parliament at Westminster, and that they have not had the individual assembly they are entitled to (mind you, English regions don’t get one of these !) meeting for almost two years, because of a childish quarrel. Why our futures should be determined by this minority baffles me.
Author
Of course it’s impossible, unless post No-Deal Brexit the UK simply keeps the border open and turns a blind eye to tariffs, as John Redwood has suggested. Then you start being unfair. It is open to any person elected to Westminster to refuse to swear allegiance to the Crown and therefore not attend. It can be argued the Assembly is not sitting because of a disagreement on points of principle. It’s far too facile to accuse people you do not understand of being ‘childish’. We try not to be unkind or gratuitously offensive here.
Yes, I thought we had been here before.
So God is saying to himself “It’s no good them voting for Brexit, I’m not going to allow it unless enough of them ask ME for it”.
I find that difficult to believe. Lots of people find it difficult to believe.
That should of course be in reply to the earlier one !
Author
Because that’s not quite how it works!
An Irish friend of mine has suggested that rulings on the Irish border really don’t matter, because people will smuggle things anyway.
Perhaps “childish” is too strong a word, but “quarrel” isn’t. Are you aware that bilingual signs in English and Ulster Scots already exist, useful ones like :
Disabled children Weans wi’ disablements
Silverstream Park Sillerburn Pairk
Café Aitin-hoos.
I don’t think this goes on in Scotland itself very much.
However, the authorities will not put up with signs in the genuinely distinctive Gaelic language, which is used in the Republic although scarcely spoken there either.
As you well know, signs in English and Welsh are well tolerated without much quarrelling, even close to the border with England. One gets to understand the Welsh this way, actually, and it’s a feature of the place (no doubt at enormous cost !).
It seems to me that an elected MP has a duty to represent his electorate, which he won’t do by sitting at home (or in one of the comfortable offices in Westminster which they will accept). The electors are partly to blame if they tolerate this. MPs are not at liberty to neglect their duties. But the electors shouldn’t instead be clamouring to change the fate of the whole of the United Kingdom, who have their own problems (in Kent, for example — why is County Antrim more important than Kent ?) .
The Reverend Ian Paisley and quite a number of Catholics didn’t try very hard not to be unkind or gratuitously offensive to the other denomination, et al.
My view is Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland should stop messing about trying to govern themselves to split from the rest of the nation, and go back to how they were. The reason is Britain is more powerful if it acts as one nation, and I really do hate the way Scotland is being so mean towards the English, trying to blame us for all of their woes. They seem to think the more power they have to govern themselves the better they will be, so ultimately they become a separate nation.
This is just plain stupid, because small nations will not be able to fend very well for themselves and so they will be forced to be governed by the EU, just as it was with Malta. They didn’t like the idea but it was an economic necessity. It is also totally false that the English exploit the Scottish, or the Welsh or Irish, and on the contrary have been caring towards them. Britain as a nation is powerful because it has many trading links which go right back the empire. I believe we as one nation can survive leaving the EU and turn it around so we do better than we did, once it has all calmed down. However there are quite a few socialists who wish to destroy us. The SNP is the party I really do feel has been working for the devil. It’s so divisive. Look – the situation regarding normal people is the Scottish people and the English people get on very well on an individual level, but it is the crowd thing where they are led to hate us by politicians with a very dark agenda. It’s got to stop. If the Scottish really do want to be free then their best bet is to remain British, and indeed become fully British. Same goes for the Irish and Welsh.
Thank you Stephen for identifying this as God’s will. His Word makes it abundantly clear He is in charge of the nations, NOT MEN (or Women), and He raises up or deposes in accordance with His will. Wicked leaders are often used as instruments of judgement!
We should not be surprised at the chaos & confusion, not to mention duplicity & dishonesty. If we’re honest, it’s less than we deserve! We do pray for our leaders & Government in accordance with the Scriptures that they lead us in “righteousness” and not “wickedness”! They have repeatedly closed their ears to appeals on this, so we can only expect “judgement”! Yes, we appeal to the Lord, “In judgement, remember mercy”, but He is a just God and cannot & will not bless wickedness. So we also pray, “Thy will be done, and not mine”. Often people have to be brought to their physical knees before they will come to their spiritual knees & ask for mercy & salvation & restoration. Regards, David.
It seems clear to me that if there is an accidental no-deal crash-out of the EU, this will demonstrate that the UK is unable to govern herself as an independent nation. I dare say the Lord will have to teach us this the hard way.
Why is the only thing that seems to matter in this debate, from all I’ve heard on the TV and “news”papers, is how worse or better off we will be MATERIALLY? Will we prosper (economically) or not?
No-one seems to give a fig about liberty, righteousness, democracy, justice, rule of law, national sovereignty, etc etc etc.
Of course, liberty etc is no use if you’re going to starve to death, but a no-deal won’t be THAT bad! (will it?!!)
See Richard North (EU Referendum blog) on the consequences of no-deal. Whether it will result in liberty etc. remains to be seen. If the consequences are bad enough, people will want a Strong Leader to sort it out, someone who doesn’t faff about with liberty etc., who takes emergency powers and who deals appropriately with the people who inflicted a no-deal Brexit on us. As a nation we do not do God, and liberty etc. developed only in nations that did do God. So if it were set aside in order to restore what is lost through no-deal would we get it back again? May God have mercy on us.
John S: “If the consequences are bad enough, people will want a Strong Leader to sort it out, someone who doesn’t faff about with liberty etc., who takes emergency powers and who deals appropriately with the people who inflicted a no-deal Brexit on us.”
yes, you could be right, John, an interesting thought. Mob rule, venomous political discourse etc has become a feature of our times: the leftists really hate conservatives/Christians (using “conservative” in the small “c” sense: I would not say the Conservative Party is conservative any longer).
MY word to the Remainers is this:
“If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.”
― Samuel Adams
Here’s another quote from him that seems to me quite apposite:
“No people will tamely surrender their Liberties, nor can any be easily subdued, when knowledge is diffused and virtue is preserved. On the Contrary, when People are universally ignorant, and debauched in their Manners, they will sink under their own weight without the Aid of foreign Invaders.”
And again: “A general dissolution of principles and manners will more surely overthrow the liberties of America than the whole force of the common enemy. While the people are virtuous they cannot be subdued; but when once they lose their virtue then will be ready to surrender their liberties to the first external or internal invader.”
But then he lived quite a long time ago, so can be safely dismissed as one of those ignorant, backward, uncivilised barbarians that knew nothing, unlike us in our Brave New World. Good grief, some of them even believed the Bible!
Personally, I doubt the “great British people” would choose liberty, honour etc over the slightest economic hardship. Scare them enough with “Project Fear” and they’ll soon fall into line. The problem is ultimately spiritual, and moral, not political.
Morals require a higher form of intelligence. Animals are not thought to posses morals and are driven by survival instincts, a kind of base form of intelligence. Notice it is this that is crowding out the film market. It’s the one thing all TV films bar a very small minority have these days. The fear you refer to is just one of these. Sex is another, and that’s why it is on the school curriculum. Control is the reason they do all of this. Very few of the general population have twigged how they are being controlled. Those who have would seek to minimise exposure. Indeed the less they are affected the more powerful they are, since this training is taking their free will away. I see this as on par with loss of soul. You effectively become a zombie. They tell you to jump and you jump.
“Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.” (Benjamin Franklin)